Now that the U.S. economy is expanding at a faster clip, Hillary Clinton could see a boost in the final days of the presidential campaign, according to ABC News chief political analyst Matthew Dowd.
The Commerce Department said today that the economy grew by an estimated 2.9 percent in the third quarter, up from 1.4 percent in the second quarter. That estimate, the last one before the Nov. 8 election, beat expectations and was the fastest rate of growth in two years.
Republican nominee Donald Trump has pointed to slow growth in his argument for new economic and regulatory policies.
“One of the keys to unlocking growth is scaling back years of disastrous regulations unilaterally imposed by our out-of-control bureaucracy,” Trump said at the New York Economic Club in September, according to a transcript on his website. “I’ve proposed a moratorium on new federal regulations that are not compelled by Congress or public safety, and I will eliminate all needless and job-killing regulations now on the books.”
Dowd said today’s GDP report will likely boost Americans’ sense that the country is headed in the right direction, and it could positively affect President Obama’s approval rating.
“There’s a direct correlation between a president’s job approval rating and how they do as a party in an election,” Dowd said.
Obama’s approval and the percentage of Americans who feel the country is headed in the right direction “will have the most impact on the election,” Dowd said.
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi agreed.
“The economy is at the back of Secretary Clinton,” Zandi told ABC News. “There is close to a record number of job openings and layoffs have never been lower. Wage growth is picking up.”
Dowd said that the effect could be muted, however, because the positive economic conditions are coming less than two weeks before polls open.
Furthermore, the numbers will likely have a minimal effect on Trump’s core supporters, Dowd said.
“For most of the people voting for Donald Trump…their life hasn’t changed much in 25 years, and that’s what they’re most frustrated about — that their actual finances haven’t really been affected even though the economy might be growing or doing better,” he noted.
But the overall picture, Zandi said, is improving.
“While not everyone is enjoying the better economy, more and more are,” he said. “If this election is about the economy, Clinton should win.”
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